34
believe that this racial impact, which is not explainable on grounds such as legal
and social factors, is a violation of the children’s right to equal protection. Notably,
the sheer number of Black children before the court is higher than the number of
White children. While we acknowledge that this substantial numerical difference is
based on the number of children referred to the court by other agencies,
27
the case
analysis considers how JCMSC personnel address these two groups once they are
within the court’s ambit. With respect to the court personnel’s implementation of
lenient options, two areas are particularly troubling – (1) disparities in the
application of a pre-adjudicative warning or other informal adjustment such as
counseling, and (2) disparities in the application of sanctions not resulting in
confinement, such as a fine, restitution, and community service requirements.
First, our consultant considered the cases between 2005 and 2009 that did
not result in dismissals. This included a total of 54,700 cases, involving 46,911
Black children and 7,789 White children. He analyzed the odds ratio of a Black
child receiving a warning as compared to a White child. While a large number of
children, both Black and White, received the benefit of a warning or other informal
adjustment, Black children were less likely to receive these benefits than White
children. In particular, he found that the ratio of the odds of a Black child receiving
a warning compared to a White child was .45.
28
As with the RRI, 1.0 represents a
race neutral ratio.
29
27
The disparity in the number of children referred to the court is itself cause for concern.
However, we did not investigate this fact and, as such, do not make a finding concerning it.
The base odds ratio of .45 suggests that Black children are less
than fifty percent as likely to receive a warning as compared to White children.
This number does not account for other variables such as age, gender, prior
offenses, school attendance, and other issues that may have impacted the result. As
such, we also considered the impact of these variables, using the logistic regression
analysis method described above. The statistician found that the impact of these
factors reduced the impact of race, but that race was still a statistically significant
factor in determining whether a child will receive a warning as opposed to more
serious sanctions. Specifically, the odds of Black children receiving a warning was
28
This number was determined by calculating the odds for each group. Accordingly, the
odds of a White child receiving a warning are determined by dividing the percentage
receiving a warning by the percentage not receiving a warning. For example, 88.2 percent
of White children received a warning and 11.8 percent did not receive a warning. The
overall odds of a White child receiving a warning is therefore 7.47. 77.3 percent of Black
children received a warning and 23.0 percent did not receive a warning. The overall odds
for a Black child receiving a warning is therefore 3.36. The effect of race is calculated as
the ratio of the odds. In this case, 3.36 divided by 7.47 equals .45. (Note: The 2010 odds
ratio data when added to the five year data, changes the odds ratio to 0.46).
29
Note, the RRI and the odds ratios are different analyses, although neutrality is
represented in both as 1.0.