ENERGY FINANCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Page 6
Sub-Saharan Africa can be divided into three groups: countries with access rates above 50 percent (17
countries
5
), countries with access rates between 25 percent and 50 percent (17 countries
6
) and
countries with access rates below 25 percent (15 countries
7
). The level of economic development, a
stable investment climate, clear grid expansion plans, a clear framework for regulation and legislation
and the possibility of regional interconnections generally support the electrification rate, while a large
portion of the population living in remote rural areas and high growth rates of the rural population
contravene efforts to increase the electrification rate.
According to IEA statistics on the 24 largest countries of sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa),
60% of the current average generation mix was renewable from 2012-2014. Most of it is coming from
large scale hydropower plants.
Regional view: What are the needs in energy finance?
East Africa
8
• Relatively conducive business environment. Has attracted relatively large investment flows into its
energy sector over the last decade.
• Tanzania and Kenya benefit from relatively well developed Electrification Masterplans, that include
a systematic attribution of areas to the different electrification instruments: grid extension/
densification, thermal and renewable power plants, mini-grids, distributed off-grid solutions. Such
clarity helps to attract investments.
• The distributed off-grid sector (in particular Solar Home Systems) has first taken off in East Africa,
some off-grid areas in Tanzania and Kenya are very well served and potentially saturated, however
vast geographies remain untapped and provide large opportunities for distributed off-grid financing
through private sector operations. At the same time there are very low income households that
cannot bear the full cost of these systems.
•
The renewable energy sector in Kenya continues to be amongst the most active in Africa across
technologies such as wind, geothermal, small-scale hydro, photovoltaics and biofuels.
• Suffers from weak electricity utilities. Credible turn-around programmes together with capacity
building and advisory support should be considered by suitable donors, but remain difficult.
Horn of Africa
9
• One of fastest growing regions in Africa with Ethiopia at 10.9 percent and Djibouti 6.8 percent in
2017
10
.
• Somalia does not possess national transmission systems. Local populations are served by small,
mostly diesel-powered, generation.
• High solar potential in region and in addition Ethiopia with extensive hydro potential estimated at
20 Gigawatts.
• Weak legal and regulatory frameworks in energy sector.
• Potential for mini-grids based on renewables (including battery storage) to replace expensive
imported diesel.
5
Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Kenya, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Senegal, Cape Verde, Sao Tome
and Principe, South Africa, Botswana, Comoros, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, Swaziland.
6
Congo, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan, Benin, Togo, Gambia, Mali, Mauretania, Angola, Lesotho,
Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
7
Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Somali, South Sudan, Uganda,
Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Malawi.
8
Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Seychelles, Sudan
9
Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea
10
African Development Bank – Energy Power Outlook 2